Future Forest
Extreme weather events, such as late frosts and summer droughts, are increasingly frequent in Central Europe, often with devastating impacts on forests. However, many aspects of the impact remain understudied. Particularly, while ecological impact thresholds are increasingly a focus in climate change research, it is unclear how thresholds associated with one event type are modulated by other extreme events. Likewise, quantifying impacts of successive extreme events at larger spatial scales is limited in ecological research, in part, because experimental data that can be readily incorporated into regional or continental scale models is lacking. We set up a large crossed gradient experiment with 450 seedlings of seven tree species (Abies alba, Fagus sylvatica , Larix decidua, Picea abies, Pinus mugo ssp. rotundifolia, Pseudotzuga menziesii and Sorbus torminalis) that are common in Central European forests, at the Ökologisch-Botanischer Garten, Bayreuth. We manipulated both exposure to late frosts of varying severity (six regimes, -2°C to -11°C) and to droughts of varying lengths (ten regimes, no drought through to 12 weeks’ drought). We measured phenological, physiological and demographic responses. Early results of the experiment indicate that interactions between extreme waether events are common. We intend to apply this experimental data in species distribution models to make impact predictions at a continental scale. Climate models project that the prevalence of extreme weather events will continue to grow in this region. Therefore, understanding the impacts of extreme weather events on tree species is imperative to inform both forest conservation policy and sustainable forestry practices under a changing climate. |
SUSALPS
I have been contributing to the established SUSALPS project (www.susalps.de/en/) since mid 2020. In this interdisciplinary working group, we focus on the studying sustainable use of alpine and pre-alpine grassland soils in a changing climate. Grassland ecosystems are widely spread in the alps and the foothills of the alps of southern Germany and cover an area of more than one million hectares. In addition to their economic value, they fulfill important ecosystem functions such as the storage of carbon and nitrogen, water retention, protection against erosion and biodiversity. However, changes in climate, land use and grassland management jeopardize the multiple functions provided by grasslands. The aim of the SUSALPS project is to improve our knowledge on the effects of current and future climate and management on ecosystem functions performed by grasslands. In the process, the general framework of the socio-economy of the specific geographic region will be considered. Based on this improved knowledge, sustainable management options for grasslands in the alps and the foothills of the alps will be developed. These management options will be especially designed to support the climate protection function of grassland soils. |
Modelling Taonga Tipu
While climate change is expected to be the leading cause of extinctions globally into the future, most extinctions will be driven by climate change working synergistically with other ecosystem changes, such as invasion. Species Distribution Models (SDM) are increasingly used as a management tool: they great potential to show us where species will be limited by the climate as global temperatures soar. However, these models often do not include species interaction, like those with invaders. The vigour of invasive plants, as well as the geographic space they occupy, is likely to change with the climate. This affects the persistence of the indigenous species they coexist with. How do invasion and climate change work together to affect species' distributions in the landscape? I use elevational gradients, which I feed into climate envelope models to investigate this question. My field work was based in Tongariro National Park, in New Zealand. This unique and charismatic landscape is undergoing change as a result of a warming climate. Simultaneously, European heather (Calluna vulgaris) is aggressively invading the Park. Management strategies targeted at conserving species are likely to under-represent risk if they fail to incorporate the complex interactive effects of these two drivers of environmental change. This research, while yet to be published in an academic journal, is already contributing towards the knowledge pool being used in the conservation of this treasured landscape -- it has been used as a case study in the New Zealand Department of Conservation Cliamte Change Adaptation Plan. This project is being done in collaboration with local iwi and government, to ensure the conservation of not only ecologically, but also culturally important species. For more about this project take a look at "The Future of Our Taonga Tipu" |
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[email protected] Disturbance Ecology Bayreuth Center of Ecology and Environmental Research (BayCEER) University of Bayreuth, Germany |